MICHIGAN 2026 · PRESEASON MODEL
SEASON PROJECTION
Every game projected before kickoff using one frozen preseason power rating. No 2026 results are allowed to move the forecast after the season begins.
PROJECTED RECORD9-3
EXPECTED WINS8.9
MEDIAN OUTCOME9-3
UNDEFEATED0.9%
BACKTESTED MODELFrozen before Week 1 and walk-forward tested on the 2018-2025 seasons: 12.5-point margin MAE and 77.9% winner accuracy. Inputs are prior-season opponent-adjusted performance, recruiting and QB continuity; no polls or betting lines are used.
WIN TOTAL DISTRIBUTION
50,000 SEASON SIMULATIONS4W
0.1%
5W
0.5%
6W
2.8%
7W
10.0%
8W
23.0%
9W
31.4%
10W
23.7%
11W
7.6%
12W
0.9%
GAME BY GAME
WEEK BY WEEKWK1
HOME#79
Western Michigan+27.6PROJ MARGIN
96%WIN PROB
›WK2
HOME#12
Oklahoma+4.3PROJ MARGIN
67%WIN PROB
›WK3
HOME#122
UTEP+38.4PROJ MARGIN
99%WIN PROB
›WK4
HOME#24
Iowa+13.0PROJ MARGIN
82%WIN PROB
›WK5
AWAY#33
Minnesota+10.9PROJ MARGIN
79%WIN PROB
›WEEK 6 · BYE
WK7
HOME#20
Penn State+10.1PROJ MARGIN
79%WIN PROB
›WK8
HOME#15
Indiana+7.9PROJ MARGIN
74%WIN PROB
›WK9
AWAY#49
Rutgers+14.7PROJ MARGIN
84%WIN PROB
›WK10
HOME#58
Michigan State+23.1PROJ MARGIN
92%WIN PROB
›WK11
AWAY#2
Oregon-11.4PROJ MARGIN
24%WIN PROB
›WK12
HOME#51
UCLA+20.9PROJ MARGIN
90%WIN PROB
›WK13
AWAY#1
Ohio State-12.5PROJ MARGIN
22%WIN PROB
›Win probability and margin ranges come from an empirical bootstrap of the model's own out-of-sample Week 1 prediction errors (2018-2025), not an assumed distribution.