COLLEGE FOOTBALL · OPPONENT ADJUSTED
ANALYTICS LAB
Build your own view of any FBS team. One game, any stretch of games, or the full season — graded against the strength of the opponents actually faced.
MODELSchedule Adjusted
Ridge 40Home 20
Strict leave-one-game-out gradingCHART BUILDER
Choose the question.
Every control updates the charts and rankings below.
Side of ball
Quick range
2025 · OFFENSE
Michigan
Full season
CREATE A VISUAL
Success rate · offense
Positive = better than schedule-adjusted expectation. Each game is graded with that game removed from the rating fit.
SELECTED WINDOW
What the model sees
- Actual
- 46.9%
- Expected
- 45.7%
- Performance over expected
- +1.2 pp
- National span rank
- #18 / 136
FULL SEASON
Adjusted team strength
- Success rate adjusted value
- 46.8%
- Success rate national rank
- #19
- Offense composite
- #19 · 83.4
- Defense composite
- #38 · 67.6
NATIONAL RANKINGS
Success rate performance over expected
Same week window for every FBS team. Positive POE is better on both offense and defense.
| RK | TEAM | G | ACTUAL | EXPECTED | POE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ArkansasSEC | 11 | 49.3% | 47.1% | +2.2 pp |
| 2 | VanderbiltSEC | 12 | 50.6% | 48.4% | +2.1 pp |
| 3 | Ohio StateBig Ten | 13 | 51.8% | 49.8% | +2.1 pp |
| 4 | Georgia TechACC | 12 | 49.8% | 47.9% | +1.9 pp |
| 5 | North TexasAmerican Athletic | 13 | 51.8% | 50.2% | +1.6 pp |
| 6 | TennesseeSEC | 12 | 49.6% | 48.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 7 | IndianaBig Ten | 15 | 50.4% | 48.8% | +1.6 pp |
| 8 | UtahBig 12 | 12 | 48.7% | 47.2% | +1.5 pp |
| 9 | WashingtonBig Ten | 12 | 49.1% | 47.6% | +1.5 pp |
| 10 | Notre DameFBS Independents | 12 | 47.3% | 45.8% | +1.5 pp |
| 11 | Texas A&MSEC | 12 | 46.6% | 45.2% | +1.4 pp |
| 12 | Florida StateACC | 11 | 46.3% | 44.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 13 | USCBig Ten | 13 | 49.2% | 47.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 14 | OregonBig Ten | 14 | 47.4% | 46.0% | +1.3 pp |
| 15 | LouisvilleACC | 12 | 45.6% | 44.3% | +1.3 pp |
| 16 | KansasBig 12 | 11 | 45.9% | 44.6% | +1.3 pp |
| 17 | NavyAmerican Athletic | 12 | 49.0% | 47.8% | +1.2 pp |
| 18 | MichiganBig Ten | 13 | 46.9% | 45.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 19 | MiamiACC | 15 | 46.7% | 45.5% | +1.2 pp |
| 20 | IllinoisBig Ten | 12 | 47.9% | 46.6% | +1.2 pp |
| 21 | Penn StateBig Ten | 12 | 46.1% | 45.0% | +1.1 pp |
| 22 | Ole MissSEC | 14 | 47.3% | 46.3% | +1.0 pp |
| 23 | Air ForceMountain West | 11 | 47.5% | 46.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 24 | CincinnatiBig 12 | 12 | 45.8% | 44.9% | +0.9 pp |
| 25 | BYUBig 12 | 13 | 45.1% | 44.2% | +0.9 pp |
GAME-BY-GAME
Actual → Expected → POE
| GAME | SCORE | ACTUAL | EXPECTED | POE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 · New MexicoHOME | 34-17 | 43.5% | 46.5% | -3.0 pp |
| W2 · OklahomaAWAY | 13-24 | 23.6% | 36.9% | -13.3 pp |
| W3 · Central MichiganHOME | 63-3 | 64.5% | 47.5% | +16.9 pp |
| W4 · NebraskaAWAY | 30-27 | 38.9% | 47.1% | -8.2 pp |
| W6 · WisconsinHOME | 24-10 | 56.7% | 46.9% | +9.8 pp |
| W7 · USCAWAY | 13-31 | 45.5% | 46.7% | -1.2 pp |
| W8 · WashingtonHOME | 24-7 | 47.1% | 44.1% | +3.0 pp |
| W9 · Michigan StateAWAY | 31-20 | 46.0% | 47.4% | -1.4 pp |
| W10 · PurdueHOME | 21-16 | 50.0% | 49.6% | +0.4 pp |
| W12 · NorthwesternNEUTRAL | 24-22 | 55.7% | 47.6% | +8.1 pp |
| W13 · MarylandAWAY | 45-20 | 57.1% | 45.8% | +11.4 pp |
| W14 · Ohio StateHOME | 9-27 | 25.6% | 43.0% | -17.4 pp |
| POST W1 · TexasNEUTRAL | 27-41 | 39.5% | 43.1% | -3.6 pp |
Opponent strength is part of the number.
Full-season ranks come from the schedule-adjusted offense/defense model. Game and custom-range views use retrospective leave-one-game-out expectations, so a game never grades itself. Range POE is weighted by the underlying play sample, then compared with every FBS team over the same season window.