National opponent-adjusted offense
CREATOR CHART ROOM · OPPONENT ADJUSTED
EVERY GAME.EXPLAINED.
Choose any Michigan game from 2025. Instead of dumping advanced stats on the audience, each dossier answers the questions that matter: How strong was the opponent? What was Michigan expected to do? What actually happened? And did the opponent outperform Michigan's own strength?
13 games5 validated core metricstarget game excluded from expectationridge 40
2025 GAME LIBRARY
Pick a game. Then see what actually happened.
Every game opens a full opponent-adjusted dossier. The score tells you who won. These charts tell you who played better or worse than the matchup should have produced.
WEEK 1 · Home
Michigan 34 · New Mexico 17
Full-season opponent-adjusted strength provides the matchup context below. The actual game grade is stricter: this game is removed before its expected performance is calculated.
W34-17
The unit Michigan's offense actually faced
National opponent-adjusted defense
The unit Michigan's defense actually faced
Actual
What the team really did in this game.
Expected
What our schedule-adjusted matchup model expected after accounting for both teams' strength. The target game itself is excluded.
Difference from expected
Actual minus expected. This is the simplest way to ask whether a team overperformed or underperformed the matchup.
Percentage points
A percentage-point difference compares two rates directly. Example: 45% actual versus 40% expected is 5 percentage points better. It is not a 5% increase.
01 · STRENGTH OF MATCHUP
How good were the units Michigan was actually facing?
National ranks give the audience a reference point before judging the box score. Rank #1 is best. These are full-season opponent-adjusted ranks.
| Metric | Michigan offense | New Mexico defense | Michigan defense | New Mexico offense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Success rateHow often an offense gained enough yards to stay on schedule. Higher is better for the offense. | #19 | #41 | #58 | #93 |
| Rush success rateHow often designed runs gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule. | #4 | #26 | #47 | #82 |
| Pass success rateHow often dropbacks gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule. | #54 | #60 | #79 | #91 |
| Explosive-play rateHow often a play created an explosive gain. It captures big-play frequency, not just average yardage. | #19 | #34 | #22 | #57 |
| Yards per playAverage yards gained per offensive play. Useful for overall efficiency, but it can hide inconsistency if a few big plays carry the average. | #21 | #53 | #18 | #78 |
02 · MICHIGAN OFFENSE
How Michigan's offense performed against New Mexico
Actual rate versus the schedule-adjusted expectation. The game itself is removed from the expectation fit.
Success rate
How often an offense gained enough yards to stay on schedule. Higher is better for the offense.
Actual 43.5%Expected 46.5%
-3.0 percentage pointsRush success rate
How often designed runs gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
Actual 44.8%Expected 47.5%
-2.6 percentage pointsPass success rate
How often dropbacks gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
Actual 42.4%Expected 43.0%
-0.6 percentage pointsExplosive-play rate
How often a play created an explosive gain. It captures big-play frequency, not just average yardage.
Actual 11.3%Expected 12.6%
-1.3 percentage points03 · TOTAL EFFICIENCY
Yards per play: the number that can either confirm the story or hide it
Yards per play is shown separately because it uses a different unit than the rate metrics above.
Expected 6.35 yards/play
+0.96 yards/playExpected 4.78 yards/play
-1.17 yards/play04 · OPPONENT OFFENSE
How New Mexico's offense performed against Michigan
Actual rate versus the schedule-adjusted expectation. The game itself is removed from the expectation fit.
Success rate
How often an offense gained enough yards to stay on schedule. Higher is better for the offense.
Actual 39.7%Expected 39.1%
+0.6 percentage pointsRush success rate
How often designed runs gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
Actual 24.0%Expected 40.8%
-16.8 percentage pointsPass success rate
How often dropbacks gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
Actual 47.9%Expected 38.8%
+9.1 percentage pointsExplosive-play rate
How often a play created an explosive gain. It captures big-play frequency, not just average yardage.
Actual 6.8%Expected 10.0%
-3.1 percentage points05 · WHO BEAT EXPECTATION?
Michigan versus New Mexico, graded against what each opponent should have allowed
This is the cleanest two-way view. Michigan's offense is on the left; New Mexico's offense is on the right. Both are judged relative to the defense they faced.
Success rate
How often an offense gained enough yards to stay on schedule. Higher is better for the offense.
Michigan -3.0 percentage pointsNew Mexico +0.6 percentage points
Rush success rate
How often designed runs gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
Michigan -2.6 percentage pointsNew Mexico -16.8 percentage points
Pass success rate
How often dropbacks gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
Michigan -0.6 percentage pointsNew Mexico +9.1 percentage points
Explosive-play rate
How often a play created an explosive gain. It captures big-play frequency, not just average yardage.
Michigan -1.3 percentage pointsNew Mexico -3.1 percentage points
The game in plain English
Michigan finished at 43.5% versus 46.5% expected — 3.0 percentage points worse than the matchup model expected.
New Mexico finished at 24.0% versus 40.8% expected — 16.8 percentage points worse than the matchup model expected.
Michigan averaged 7.31 yards/play versus 6.35 yards/play expected — 0.96 yards per play above expectation.
New Mexico averaged 3.61 yards/play versus 4.78 yards/play expected — 1.17 yards per play below expectation.
The average can hide the story.
Michigan's yards-per-play grade and success-rate grade point in opposite directions. That usually means a few productive plays changed the average while the offense told a different story down to down.
What are these charts actually measuring?
How often an offense gained enough yards to stay on schedule. Higher is better for the offense.
How often designed runs gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
How often dropbacks gained enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
How often a play created an explosive gain. It captures big-play frequency, not just average yardage.
Average yards gained per offensive play. Useful for overall efficiency, but it can hide inconsistency if a few big plays carry the average.